India’s love affair with gold isn’t ending anytime soon—but rising prices are definitely changing how people buy it. A new report by ICRA predicts that gold jewellery consumption by volume could drop 9-10% in FY26, thanks largely to a massive 33% spike in gold prices over the past year.
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While people may cut back on buying jewellery, they’re turning to gold as a financial safety net. Demand for gold bars and coins—often seen as safer investment options—jumped 17% and 25% in FY24 and FY25, as global uncertainties and geopolitical tensions made investors nervous. That trend isn’t going away, either. ICRA expects bars and coins to make up around 35% of total gold demand in FY26, with demand rising another 10%.
Interestingly, even though people are expected to buy less jewellery by weight, the total value of jewellery sales is still projected to grow—by 12-14% in FY26. That’s on top of the 28% value jump in FY25, which was driven almost entirely by the surge in gold prices.
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Jitin Makkar, Senior VP and Group Head at ICRA, explained that larger, organised jewellery retailers are still expected to do well. Their revenues could climb 14-16% year-on-year, helped by expanding store networks, climbing gold prices, and a continued shift of market share away from smaller, unorganised players. A favorable calendar with more auspicious days for weddings and festivals will also help prop up demand.
