Garlic exports from India are poised to achieve a new peak in the fiscal year 2024, following the unprecedented export volumes recorded in the preceding year.

The worldwide scarcity of the spice, fueled by a decrease in supply from China, the largest producer, has been causing an increase in garlic export quantities from India.

With a dominant 75 percent share of the global garlic output, China produces over 23 million tonnes, making it the leading contributor. India follows, albeit with a significantly lower production of 3.3 million tonnes.

During FY23, a deficiency in garlic production in China resulted in record-breaking garlic exports from India. However, in the ongoing fiscal year, exports have surpassed previous achievements and are expected to reach new heights. According to the most recent data from the Spices Board, exports for the period of April to September 2023–24 totaled 56,823 tonnes, valued at INR 277 crore. This represents a remarkable increase of 110 percent in quantity and 129 percent in value compared to the corresponding period in the previous year.

In FY23, garlic exports reached a new high of 57,346 tonnes valued at INR 246 crore. In the past six months, while the quantity has inched close to the annual export volume last year, the value has already crossed last year’s level.

Quantity-wise, there was a staggering 159 percent year-on-year (YoY) increase, accompanied by a 32 percent rise in value during FY23. This marked the inaugural occasion when garlic exports from India surpassed the 50,000-tonne threshold, surpassing the previous peak of 47,000 tonnes recorded in 2017–18.

Notably, this occurred amid a general decline in spice export volumes, which contracted by 8 percent throughout the year. Key spices such as chilli, cumin, spice oleoresins, and mint products experienced reductions in export quantities. Additionally, this period coincided with elevated domestic and international prices for Indian garlic. Exporters report current international prices for Indian garlic at approximately $1,800 per tonne, in contrast to China’s $1,350 per tonne.

Wholesale garlic rates are at approximately INR 240 per kilogram, causing retail prices to fluctuate within the range of INR 260–265 per kilogram in the domestic market.

“Prices reached this level in the last couple of weeks. As a result, offtake by shops has declined. This is the highest price so far. Prices had reached INR 180 per kg two years ago,’’ said Sujesh, a wholesale garlic merchant in Kerala.

Garlic prices have surged due to depleting old stock and a surge in export demand. While the anticipation of a higher yield in the upcoming year exists, the persistent increase in demand may contribute to sustained price levels.

“We are expecting a crop of 3.6 to 3.75 million tonnes in place of 3.3 million tonnes in the last season,’’ said Vijay Hotwani, Managing Director of Varchasva Agro, an exporting firm based in Madhya Pradesh.

The sowing for the upcoming season has witnessed a 30 percent rise. However, the actual increase in production hinges on weather conditions, as mentioned by the source. Madhya Pradesh, contributing approximately 65 percent of the total output, stands as the foremost garlic-producing state. Other significant producers include Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Gujarat.

Hotwani feels the current price trends will continue until the harvest in February-March. “After that, prices could slacken, which may boost exports. Our prices could fall to $900 per tonne next year, which could be below the garlic price in China,’’ he pointed out.

The worldwide scarcity has compelled non-traditional buyers of Indian garlic to seek the spice from the country. While Indian garlic is predominantly favored by Asian nations like Bangladesh, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Nepal, there has been an increased demand from Latin American countries such as Brazil in the past year.

“They used to buy from China but have now shifted their focus to India,’’ Hotwani said.

Nearly 70 percent of garlic export volume is in fresh form, with the remaining portion predominantly consisting of flakes and granules. There has been a growing demand for these processed forms, particularly from Western countries in recent times.

Typically, the United States, Europe, and West Asia show a preference for Chinese garlic, known for its larger size, richer color, and milder taste. However, there is a noticeable increase in the purchase of Indian garlic flakes by certain countries, particularly those in West Asia, the United States, and Russia.

“Indian garlic flake prices, which were hovering below INR 100 per kg, have touched INR 105 per kg now. However, demand has increased as there is no buffer stock in China. Production is just enough to meet the demand there,’’ said Murtuza Badami, MD, Murtuza Foods Pvt. Ltd.

According to a market report from Olam Group, a prominent global agri-products company, garlic planting for the 2023 crop in China witnessed a decrease of 15-20 percent compared to the previous year. This decline is attributed to COVID-19 conditions, sluggish demand for fresh garlic, low prices, and increased support prices for wheat.